PUNE: Even as the H1N1 pandemic casualty toll has crossed 1,200, once the virus settles down, it is likely to become part of seasonal influenza.
This has been reported in a scientific paper titled 2009 Pandemic Influenza in India, written by two scientists from the Department of Clinical Virology, Christian Medical College Vellore. The study has been published in journal Indian Paediatrics, volume 47 - January 17, 2010.
“The H1N1 pandemic deaths have caused a lot of panic across the country in past six months since the first death in Pune. Once it settles down, the virus is most likely to become the predominant agent of seasonal influenza in the future,” co-author of the paper Mahesh Moorthy told Sakaal Times.
Moorthy was in the city to visit National Institute of Virology for handing over isolates as part of the virus surveillance programme. T Jacob John is the other author of this paper.
Once the World Health Organisation (WHO) reduces the H1N1 status from pandemic to endemic, the virus will become part of seasonal flu, which occurs during monsoon and early onset of winter.
“Though the nomenclature will possibly remain the same and may continue to be known as H1N1 few years after, it will not need anti-virals for treatment. It will become an endemic and circulate all over the globe. A pandemic is an epidemic of infectious disease that is spreading through human populations across a large region. A widespread endemic disease that is stable in terms of how many people are getting sick from it is not a pandemic,” Moorthy said.
He, however, was not in the position to predict the timeline for the virus to settle down as it was too early to do it.
“Currently, from the trend it seems that it had touched the peak during monsoon to early winter season. Now, it has reached a plateau level. It is not very active. But it is difficult to say right now when will the virus settle down. It depends upon the next wave of H1N1 virus and its behavioural pattern. But a pandemic generally lasts for around one-and-a-half years,” he said.
He was also not convinced with the way physicians treat seasonal flu and common cold. “Giving common medicines for seasonal flu does not cure the ailment. It only treats the symptomatic illnesses attached with it. Common cold lasts for a couple of weeks and goes away,” he said.
ABOUT THE VIRUS
Infection by Influenza A H1N1 virus is the most common cause of flu.Another subtype of the virus is the suspect behind the 1981 flu pandemic, during which more than 40 million people died. A strain of the virus, Influenza A H1N1 /09 caused the pandemic of the diesase most commonly known as Swine Flu. The virus is a mixture of avian, swine and human influenza virus .Originating from Mexico, the disesase soon spread across the globe
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